Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Publications at Bank of America Merrill Lynch (2015-2017)

(* indicates thematic research notes; ** notes on major economic forecasts/revisions)

[1]       “Advance 3Q17 GDP Shows a Big Surprise to the Upside” Korea Macro Watch, October 26, 2017.

[2]       “In Line with Our Non-Consensus View, the BoK Sounds Optimistic and Hawkish” Korea Macro Watch, October 19, 2017.

[3]       “Korea – What Should We Expect from the 19 October BoK Meeting?” Emerging Insight, October 17, 2017.

[4]       “Korea – What Does the Latest Leading Indicator Tell Us?” Emerging Insight, October 8, 2017.

[5]       “All-Time High Monthly Exports in September” Korea Macro Watch, October 2, 2017.

[6]       “Inflation Softens in September, But Stays Above 2%” Korea Macro Watch, September 29, 2017.

[7]       “UN Security Council Ramps Up Pressure on N. Korea with Strongest Sanctions Ever” Korea Macro Watch, September 13, 2017.

[8]       “Tax Hike Plan to Promote Redistribution and Fiscal Expansion” Korea Macro Watch, September 11, 2017.*

[9]       “Big Upside Surprises in Export Growth and Inflation” Korea Macro Watch, September 1, 2017.

[10]    “Preliminary 2Q17 GDP Reaffirms Steady Growth Momentum” Korea Macro Watch, September 1, 2017.

[11]    “BoK Maintains Cautious Optimism amid Elevated North Korea Risk” Korea Macro Watch, August 31, 2017.

[12]    “An Era of Big Government Has Arrived” Korea Macro Watch, August 30, 2017.*

[13]    “North Korea Risk – Is This Time Different?” Korea Macro Watch, August 18, 2017.*

[14]    “To Expect the Unexpected: Spectre of Cost-Push Inflation” Korea Macro Watch, August 2, 2017.*

[15]    “Very Strong Export Growth amid Multi-Year High Inflation in July” Korea Macro Watch, August 1, 2017.

[16]    “Advance 2Q17 GDP Shows the Economy Continues Its Steady Growth Momentum” Korea Macro Watch, July 27, 2017.

[17]    “Korea - Does It Have the Low Inflation Puzzle Too? Wage, Inflation, and the BoK” Asia Economic Weekly, July 21, 2017.*

[18]    “BoK’s Upgrading of 2017 GDP Forecast Vindicates Our Non-Consensus View” Korea Macro Watch, July 13, 2017.**

[19]    “Korea - Mr. Moon Goes to Washington” Emerging Insight, July 4, 2017.*

[20]    “Inflation Edges Lower in June, But Stays Close to 2%” Korea Macro Watch, July 4, 2017.

[21]    “Double-Digit Robust Export Growth Continues for Six Straight Months” Korea Macro Watch, July 2, 2017.

[22]    “Inequality and Growth: What Are the Current Issues and Why Do They Matter?” Korea Economic Viewpoint, June 26, 2017.*

[23]    “Moon’s Economic Agenda Supports Our Benign Outlook” GEMs Macro Monthly, June 23, 2017.

[24]    “Korea - Rising Inequality, Social Polarization, and Growth” Asia Economic Weekly, June 16, 2017.*

[25]    “Preliminary 1Q17 GDP Revised Higher with Rising Expectations for Growth” Korea Macro Watch, June 2, 2017.

[26]    “Stellar Export Performance Continues amid Multi-Year High Inflation” Korea Macro Watch, June 1, 2017.

[27]    “Growing Optimism at the BoK” Korea Macro Watch, May 25, 2017.

[28]    “Korea - President Moon’s Economic Policy Plans and the BoK” Emerging Insight, May 23, 2017.*

[29]    “How Would (or Should) the BoK React to Moon's Fiscal Policy Plan” Korea Macro Watch, May 17, 2017.

[30]    “Moon to Be Korean President: First Take” Korea Macro Watch, May 10, 2017.*

[31]    “Inflation Edged Lower in April, But Stays Close to Multi-Year Highs” Korea Macro Watch, May 2, 2017.

[32]    “Blockbuster Export Growth Continues in April” Korea Macro Watch, May 1, 2017.

[33]    “Advance 1Q17 GDP Picks Up amid Signs of Growth Gaining Momentum” Korea Macro Watch, April 27, 2017.

[34]    “North Korea Risk: Known Unknowns and Unknown Unknowns” Korea Macro Watch, April 24, 2017.*

[35]    “Benign Economic Outlook, Election, and N. Korea Issue” GEMs Macro Monthly, April 21, 2017.

[36]    “Korea: (How much) Will Strong Exports Help Employment and Consumption?” Asia Economic Weekly, April 20, 2017.*

[37]    “Is There Any Political Cycle?” Korea Economic Viewpoint, April 18, 2017.*

[38]    “BoK Upgrades 2017 GDP and Inflation Forecast, While Holding Rates Steady” Korea Watch, April 13, 2017.

[39]    “Inflation Hits Highest Level since Jun 2012” Korea Watch, April 5, 2017.

[40]    “Three Months of Double-Digit Export Growth Brighten Economic Outlook” Korea Watch, April 2, 2017.

[41]    “Preliminary GDP Data for 4Q16 and 2016 Revised Upwards” Korea Watch, March 28, 2017.

[42]    “Is the Export Comeback Real?” Korea Watch, March 20, 2017.*

[43]    “Constitutional Court Unanimously Upholds Impeachment of President Park” Korea Watch, March 10, 2017.

[44]    “Inflation Stays Close to Highest Since 2012” Korea Watch, March 3, 2017.

[45]    “Blockbuster Export Growth in February” Korea Watch, March 1, 2017.

[46]    “BoK Holds Steady amid Rising Inflation and Exports” Korea Watch, February 23, 2017.

[47]    “Korea: Minority Report on 2017-18 Economic Outlook” Emerging Insight, February 19, 2017.**

[48]    “Taking Stock of the Economic Outlook for 2017-18: So Far, So Good” Korea Watch, February 17, 2017.**

[49]    “Rising Expectations for Growth” GEMs Macro Monthly, February 17, 2017.

[50]    “Inflation Spikes to Highest Since 2012” Korea Watch, February 2, 2017.

[51]    “Export Growth Surges to 4-year High” Korea Watch, February 1, 2017.

[52]    “Korea: Is Inflation Making a Comeback?” Emerging Insight, January 29, 2017.*

[53]    “Advance 4Q16 GDP Softens, But Relieves Some Worry” Korea Watch, January 25, 2017.

[54]    “(How Much) Does Economic Sentiment Matter?” Korea Watch, January 22, 2017.*

[55]    “BoK Remains on Watchful Hold at Time of Uncertainty” Korea Watch, January 13, 2017.

[56]    “Strong Exports Growth amid Stable Inflation Bodes Well for 2017” Korea Watch, January 2, 2017.

[57]    “A Day after Fed Hike, BoK Holds Rate Steady” Korea Watch, December 15, 2016.

[58]    “Impact of Fed Rate Hike on EM Asia” (with Claudio Piron and X. Zhi) Asia Economic Viewpoint, December 15, 2016.*

[59]    “Parliament Votes Overwhelmingly to Impeach President Park” Korea Watch, December 10, 2016.

[60]    “Preliminary 3Q16 GDP Estimate Came with Minor Downward Revision” Korea Watch, December 2, 2016.

[61]    “Export Growth Turned Positive on Cont’d Improving Trend amid Stable Inflation” Korea Watch, December 1, 2016.

[62]    “Update on Political Turmoil Facing the President Park Administration” Korea Watch, November 29, 2016.

[63]    “Cautious Optimism at Time of Great Uncertainty” GEMs Year Ahead, November 17, 2016

[64]    “Three Key Questions Facing the BoK Ahead of Fed’s Hike Post-US Election” Korea Watch, November 16, 2016.*

[65]    “BoK Stays Put under Great Uncertainty” Korea Watch, November 11, 2016.

[66]   “Implications of Political Upheaval Facing the President Park Administration” (with Brian Song and Ronald Man), Korea Watch, November 3, 2016.*

[67]    “Korea: Three Key Questions Facing the BoK Ahead of Fed Hike” Emerging Insight, November 2, 2016.*

[68]    “Export Growth Gets Back on Improving Trend with Gradual Rise in Inflation” Korea Watch, November 1, 2016.

[69]    “Korea Joins the League of Wealthy Nations” Korea Watch, October 27, 2016.*

[70]    “Advance Estimate of 3Q16 GDP Surprises to the Upside” Korea Watch, October 25, 2016.

[71]    “Korea: Rare Opportunity to Build the Wealth of Nation Lies Ahead” Asia Economic Weekly, October 21, 2016.*

[72]    “BoK Holds Steady as Household Debt Continues to Rise Sharply” Korea Watch, October 13, 2016.

[73]    “Inflation Surprises to the Upside to Hit 7-month High” Korea Watch, October 5, 2016.

[74]    “Exports Fail to Snap Out of It” Korea Watch, October 2, 2016.

[75]    “BoK in Wait-and-See Mode Ahead of Fed’s Decision” Korea Watch, September 9, 2016.

[76]    “Preliminary 2Q16 GDP Turns Out Even Better than Advance Estimate” Korea Watch, September 2, 2016.

[77]    “Korea: How Sustainable Will Export Turnaround Be?” Asia Economic Weekly, September 2, 2016.*

[78]    “Stunning Turnaround of Exports Growth with Downside Inflation Surprise” Korea Watch, September 1, 2016.

[79]    “BoK Holds Steady Ahead of Passage of Supplementary Budget Bill” Korea Watch, August 11, 2016.

[80]    “Can Fiscal Stimulus Lift the Korean Economy?” Korea Watch, August 7, 2016.*

[81]    “Korea’s Fiscal Stimulus: Will It Work?” Asia Economic Weekly, August 4, 2016.*

[82]    “Weak Inflation amid Oil Price Retreat” Korea Watch, August 2, 2016.

[83]    “Recent Improving Trend of Exports Halts in July” Korea Watch, August 1, 2016.

[84]    “Stronger-than-Expected 2Q16 GDP Offers Some Relief” Korea Watch, July 26, 2016.

[85]    “Post-Brexit Uncertainty – How Much Will It Hurt?” Korea Watch, July 15, 2016.*

[86]    “BoK Is Back in Wait-and-See Mode, with Revised Outlook” Korea Watch, July 14, 2016.

[87]    “Korea: Post-Brexit uncertainty” Asia Economic Weekly, July 7, 2016.*

[88]    “Recovery in Exports Growth Looms amid Weak Inflation” Korea Watch, July 1, 2016.

[89]    “Brexit: Headwinds from the UK” Korea Watch, June 24, 2016.

[90]    “Revised Economic Forecast for 2016-17” Korea Watch, June 21, 2016.**

[91]    “Why Has Investment Been So Weak Lately?” Korea Watch, June 13, 2016.*

[92]    “BoK Surprises with a Stealth Move” Korea Watch, June 9, 2016.

[93]    “Preliminary 1Q16 GDP Revised Up” Korea Watch, June 2, 2016.

[94]    “May Exports Growth and Inflation Fall Short of Expectations” Korea Watch, June 1, 2016.

[95]    “Moderate Growth Recovery Continues” GEMs Macro Monthly, May 23, 2016.

[96]    “Making Sense of the Recent Trend of Korean Exports” Asia Economic Weekly, May 20, 2016.*

[97]    “New MPC Members Arrive at Unanimous Decision” Korea Watch, May 13, 2016.

[98]    “Low Inflation amid Recovering Oil Prices” Korea Watch, May 3, 2016.

[99]    “Export Slump Continues amid Improvement in Export Volume” Korea Watch, May 1, 2016.

[100] “GDP Growth Sputters in 1Q16” Korea Watch, April 26, 2016.

[101] “BoK Holds Steady with Revised Outlook” Korea Watch, April 19, 2016.

[102] “Park Administration Suffers a Political Defeat” Korea Watch, April 14, 2016.

[103] “Economic Forecast for 2016-17: Revision” Korea Watch, April 8, 2016.**

[104] “Korean Economy on 3% Speed Limit?” Asia Economic Weekly, April 8, 2016.*

[105] “Exports Growth Better than Consensus, with Still Weak Inflation” Korea Watch, April 1, 2016.

[106] “Preliminary 4Q GDP Revised Up, yet 2015 GDP Unchanged” Korea Watch, March 27, 2016.

[107] “A Case for Robust EM Korea?” Korea Watch, March 22, 2016.*

[108] “No Surprise from Today’s BoK Decision” Korea Watch, March 10, 2016.

[109] “Inflation Surprises to the Upside” Korea Watch, March 6, 2016.

[110] “Export Blues Continue, Mixed with Improvement in Export Volume” Korea Watch, March 1, 2016.

[111] “(Why) Is There a Disconnect Between the Leading Indicator and Reality?” Korea Watch, February 29, 2016.*

[112] “BoK Walks a Fine Line” Korea Watch, February 16, 2016.

[113] “Five Questions about Korean Households” Asia Economic Weekly, February 5, 2016.*

[114] “MoSF Unveils Additional Fiscal Policy Measures” Korea Watch, February 3, 2016.

[115] “Inflation Falls Below 1% on Base Effect” Korea Watch, February 2, 2016.

[116] “Export Gloom Deepens” Korea Watch, February 1, 2016.

[117] “What Does the Latest Labor Market Development Indicate?” Korea in Focus, January 28, 2016.*

[118] “4Q GDP Growth Softens Despite Strong Consumption” Korea Watch, January 27, 2016.

[119] “Is the Recent Large Current Account Surplus Sustainable?” Korea Watch, January 25, 2016.*

[120] “What Is Driving Korea’s Big Current Account Surplus?” Asia Economic Weekly, January 21, 2016.*

[121] “Phillips Curve Is Alive and Well” Korea Watch, January 18, 2016.*

[122] “BoK on Watchful Hold amid Skittish Start to the Year” Korea Watch, January 14, 2016.

[123] “Assessing the Recent Inflation Trend” Korea in Focus, January 7, 2016.*

[124] “N. Korea Tests H-bomb” Korea Watch, January 7, 2016.

[125] “Understanding the Recent Consumption Pattern” Korea Watch, January 4, 2016.*

[126] “Export Gloom Persists amid Feeble Inflation” Korea Watch, January 4, 2016.

[127] “BoK’s New Inflation Target of 2%” Korea Watch, December 16, 2015.

[128] “12 Trillion Dollar Free Trade Area” Korea in Focus, December 15, 2015.

[129] “BoK Continues with Rate on Hold” Korea Watch, December 10, 2015.

[130] “Korea: Consumption Redux: Is It Real?” GEMs Daily - Asia Edition, December 8, 2015.*

[131] “Preliminary 3Q GDP Estimates Turned Out Better” Korea Watch, December 3, 2015.

[132] “Weak Exports, Large Trade Surplus, and Emerging Inflation” Korea Watch, December 1, 2015.

[133] “Will Corporate Debt Be a New Stumbling Block to Korea?” Korea Watch, November 25, 2015.*

[134] “Theme 3. Living with Financial Globalization” (with Vadim Khramov and Carlos Capistran), GEMs in Focus, November 24, 2015.

[135] “Growth Recovery with a Solo Engine” Korea in Focus, November 24, 2015.

[136] “Federfly Effects on Korea” Asia Economic Weekly, November 12, 2015.*

[137] “BoK on Hold, with Eyes on Fed” Korea Watch, November 12, 2015.

[138] “What Do Data Say about Korean Economy during Fed’s Tightening Cycles?” Korea Watch, November 11, 2015.*

[139] “Inflation on Course for a Gradual Rise” Korea Watch, November 3, 2015.

[140] “Downswing in Exports Continues” Korea Watch, November 2, 2015.

[141] “We Lower Our 2016 GDP Forecast” (with Ronald Man), Korea in Focus, October 30, 2015.

[142] “Economic Forecast for 2015-16: Revision” Korea Watch, October 26, 2015.**

[143] “3Q Growth Comeback amid Gloomy Export Outlook” Korea Watch, October 23, 2015.

[144] “(Why) Is the Current Recovery Different?” Korea in Focus, October 21, 2015.*

[145] “Three Tales of A Recovery” Korea Watch, October 19, 2015.*

[146] “BoK Decision to Hold Dovetails with Our View” Korea Watch, October 15, 2015.